Global Monitoring Report 20152016: Development Goals in an Era of Demographic Change by The World Bank

Author:The World Bank
Language: eng
Format: epub
Publisher: The World Bank

Source: Chapter 3 of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook: Uneven Growth—Short- and Long-term Factors. April, 2015. Washington, D.C.

Looking forward, demographic factors are expected to be an increasing drag on potential growth. In advanced economies, demographic factors are projected to reduce potential growth by about 0.2 percentage point in the medium term (figure B3.1.1a). Working-age population growth is likely to decline significantly in most advanced economies, particularly Germany and Japan, where it will reach about –0.2 percent a year by 2020. At the same time, rapid aging is expected to further decrease the average trend labor force participation rates.

In emerging market economies, demographic factors are expected to reduce potential growth by about 0.4 percentage point by 2020 (figure B3.1.1b). Working-age population growth is likely to slow faster, most sharply in China, and to remain negative in Russia. Aging is expected to accelerate, lowering trend labor force participation rates. Again, this effect is expected to be strongest in China.

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